Air pollution and stroke - an overview of the evidence base

Air pollution is being increasingly recognized as a significant risk factor for stroke. There are numerous sources of air pollution including industry, road transport and domestic use of biomass and solid fuels. Early reports of the association between air pollution and stroke come from studies investigating health effects of severe pollution episodes. Several daily time series and case-crossover studies have reported associations with stroke. There is also evidence linking chronic air pollution exposure with stroke and with reduced survival after stroke. A conceptual framework linking air pollution exposure and stroke is proposed. It links acute and chronic exposure to air pollution with pathways to acute and chronic effects on stroke risk. Current evidence regarding potential mechanisms mainly relate to particulate air pollution. Whilst further evidence would be useful, there is already sufficient evidence to support consideration of reduction in air pollution as a preventative measure to reduce the stroke burden globally

A method for modelling GP practice level deprivation scores using GIS

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A measure of general practice level socioeconomic deprivation can be used to explore the association between deprivation and other practice characteristics. An area-based categorisation is commonly chosen as the basis for such a deprivation measure. Ideally a practice population-weighted area-based deprivation score would be calculated using individual level spatially referenced data. However, these data are often unavailable. One approach is to link the practice postcode to an area-based deprivation score, but this method has limitations. This study aimed to develop a Geographical Information Systems (GIS) based model that could better predict a practice population-weighted deprivation score in the absence of patient level data than simple practice postcode linkage.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We calculated predicted practice level Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) 2004 deprivation scores using two methods that did not require patient level data. Firstly we linked the practice postcode to an IMD 2004 score, and secondly we used a GIS model derived using data from Rotherham, UK. We compared our two sets of predicted scores to "gold standard" practice population-weighted scores for practices in Doncaster, Havering and Warrington. Overall, the practice postcode linkage method overestimated "gold standard" IMD scores by 2.54 points (95% CI 0.94, 4.14), whereas our modelling method showed no such bias (mean difference 0.36, 95% CI -0.30, 1.02). The postcode-linked method systematically underestimated the gold standard score in less deprived areas, and overestimated it in more deprived areas. Our modelling method showed a small underestimation in scores at higher levels of deprivation in Havering, but showed no bias in Doncaster or Warrington. The postcode-linked method showed more variability when predicting scores than did the GIS modelling method.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>A GIS based model can be used to predict a practice population-weighted area-based deprivation measure in the absence of patient level data. Our modelled measure generally had better agreement with the population-weighted measure than did a postcode-linked measure. Our model may also avoid an underestimation of IMD scores in less deprived areas, and overestimation of scores in more deprived areas, seen when using postcode linked scores. The proposed method may be of use to researchers who do not have access to patient level spatially referenced data.</p

Trends in alcohol-related admissions to hospital by age, sex and socioeconomic deprivation in England, 2002/03 to 2013/14

List of conditions by outcome measure. (DOCX 21 kb

Multiscale Spatiotemporal Analysis of Extreme Events in the Gomati River Basin, India

Accelerating climate change is causing considerable changes in extreme events, leading to immense socioeconomic loss of life and property. In this study, we investigate the characteristics of extreme climate events at a regional scale to ‐understand these events’ propagation in the near fu-ture. We have considered sixteen extreme climate indices defined by the World Meteorological Or-ganization’s Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices from a long‐term dataset (1951– 2018) of 53 locations in Gomati River Basin, North India. We computed the present and future spatial variation of theses indices using the Sen’s slope estimator and Hurst exponent analysis. The periodicities and non‐stationary features were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform. Bivariate copulas were fitted to estimate the joint probabilities and return periods for certain com-binations of indices. The study results show different variation in the patterns of the extreme climate indices: D95P, R95TOT, RX5D, and RX showed negative trends for all stations over the basin. The number of dry days (DD) showed positive trends over the basin at 36 stations out of those 17 stations are statistically significant. A sustainable decreasing trend is observed for D95P at all stations, indi-cating a reduction in precipitation in the future. DD exhibits a sustainable decreasing trend at almost all the stations over the basin barring a few exceptions highlight that the basin is turning drier. The wavelet power spectrum for D95P showed significant power distributed across the 2–16‐year bands, and the two‐year period was dominant in the global power spectrum around 1970–1990. One interest-ing finding is that a dominant two‐year period in D95P has changed to the four years after 1984 and remains in the past two decades. The joint return period’s resulting values are more significant than values resulting from univariate analysis (R95TOT with 44% and RTWD of 1450 mm). The difference in values highlights that ignoring the mutual dependence can lead to an underestimation of extremes. © 2021 by the author. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland

Mapping Patterns and Trends in the Spatial Availability of Alcohol Using Low-Level Geographic Data: A Case Study in England 2003–2013

Much literature examines the relationship between the spatial availability of alcohol and alcohol-related harm. This study aims to address an important gap in this evidence by using detailed outlet data to examine recent temporal trends in the sociodemographic distribution of spatial availability for different types of alcohol outlet in England. Descriptive analysis of measures of alcohol outlet density and proximity using extremely high resolution market research data stratified by outlet type and quintiles of area-level deprivation from 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2013 was undertaken and hierarchical linear growth models fitted to explore the significance of socioeconomic differences. We find that overall availability of alcohol changed very little from 2003 to 2013 (density +1.6%), but this conceals conflicting trends by outlet type and area-level deprivation. Mean on-trade density has decreased substantially (−2.2 outlets within 1 km (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) −3–0), although access to restaurants has increased (+1.0 outlets (IQR 0–1)), while off-trade access has risen substantially (+2.4 outlets (IQR 0–3)). Availability is highest in the most deprived areas (p < 0.0001) although these areas have also seen the greatest falls in on-trade outlet availability (p < 0.0001). This study underlines the importance of using detailed, low-level geographic data to understand patterns and trends in the spatial availability of alcohol. There are significant variations in these trends by outlet type and deprivation level which may have important implications for health inequalities and public health policy

A protocol for investigation of the effects of outdoor air pollution on stroke incidence, phenotypes and survival using the South London Stroke Register.

Stroke is a major cause of death and disability. About 5.3 million people die every year from stroke worldwide with over 9 million people surviving at any one time after suffering a stroke. About 1 in 4 men and 1 in 5 women aged 45 years will suffer a stroke if they live to their 85th year. It is estimated that by 2023 there will be an absolute increase in the number of people experiencing a first ever stroke of about 30% compared with 1983. In the UK, stroke is the third commonest cause of death and the most common cause of adult physical disability and consumes 5% of the health and social services budget. Stroke is assuming strategic public health importance because of increased awareness in society, an ageing population and emerging new treatments. It is an NHS health service and research priority, being identified as a target in Our Healthier Nation and the NSF for Older People for prevention and risk factor control and in the NHS Plan as a disease requiring intermediate care planning and reduction in inequalities of care. Whilst a number of risk factors for stroke are well known (e.g. increasing age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation, hypertension), the potential importance of outdoor air pollution as a modifiable risk factor is much less well recognised. This is because studies to date are inconclusive or have methodological limitations. In Sheffield, we estimated that 11% of stroke deaths may be linked to current levels of outdoor air pollution and this high figure is explained by the fact that so many people are exposed to air pollution.We plan to study the effects of outdoor air pollution on stroke using a series of epidemiological (i.e. population based) studies. The purpose of this project is: to examine if short term increases in pollution can trigger a stroke in susceptible individuals, to investigate if the occurrence of stroke is higher amongst people living in more polluted areas (which would be explained by a combination of exposure to short term increases and longer term exposure to higher pollution levels), and to see if people living in more polluted areas have reduced survival following their stroke. We will use geographical information systems, robust statistical methods and powerful grid computing facilities to link and analyse the data. The datasets we will use are the South London Stroke Register database, daily monitored pollution data from national monitoring networks and modelled pollution data for London from the Greater London Authority. The South London Stroke Register records information on all patients who suffer a stroke ("incident" cases) living within a defined area. This stroke incidence dataset offers major advantages over previous studies examining the effects of pollution on hospital admissions and mortality, as not all patients with stroke are admitted or die and there may be a delay between the onset of stroke and admission or death. In addition, it contains other useful information, particularly the type of stroke people have suffered. Air pollution is a potentially modifiable risk factor for stroke. This study will provide robust population level evidence regarding the effects of outdoor air pollution on stroke. If it confirms the link, it will suggest to policy-makers at national and international levels that targeting policy interventions at high pollution areas may be a feasible option for stroke prevention

Mapping urban greenspace use from mobile phone GPS data

Urban greenspace is a valuable component of the urban form that has the potential to improve the health and well-being of residents. Most quantitative studies of relationships between health and greenspace to date have investigated associations only with what greenspace exists in the local environment (i.e. provision of greenspace), rather than to what extent it is used. This is due to the difficulty of obtaining usage data in large amounts. In recent years, GPS functionality integrated into mobile phones has provided a potential solution to this problem by making it possible to track which parts of the environment people experience in their day-to-day lives. In this paper, we demonstrate a method to derive cleaned, trip-level information from raw GPS data collected by a mobile phone app, then use this data to investigate the characteristics of trips to urban greenspace by residents of the city of Sheffield, UK. We find that local users of the app spend an average of an hour per week visiting greenspaces, including around seven trips per week and covering a total distance of just over 2.5 km. This may be enough to provide health benefits, but is insufficient to provide maximal benefits. Trip characteristics vary with user demographics: ethnic minority users and users from more socioeconomically deprived areas tend to make shorter trips than White users and those from less deprived areas, while users aged 34 years and over make longer trips than younger users. Women, on average, make more frequent trips than men, as do those who spent more time outside as a child. Our results suggest that most day-to-day greenspace visits are incidental, i.e. travelling through rather than to greenspace, and highlight the importance of including social and cultural factors when investigating who uses and who benefits from urban greenspace.Natural Environment Research Counci

Explaining variation in emergency admissions: a mixed-methods study of emergency and urgent care systems

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors affecting variation in avoidable emergency admissions that are not usually identified in statistical regression. METHODS: As part of an ethnographic residual analysis, we compared six emergency and urgent care systems in England, interviewing 82 commissioners and providers of key emergency and urgent care services. RESULTS: There was variation between the six cases in how interviewees described three parts of their emergency and urgent care systems. First, interviewees' descriptions revealed variation in the availability of services before patients decided to attend emergency departments. Poor availability of general practice out of hours services in some of the cases reportedly made attendance at emergency departments the easier option for patients. Second, there was variation in how interviewees described patients being dealt with during their emergency department visit in terms of availability of senior review by specialists and in coding practices when patients were at risk of breaching the NHS's 4-hour waiting time target. Third, there was variability in services described as facilitating discharge home from emergency departments. In some cases, emergency department staff described dealing with multiple agencies in multiple localities outside the hospital, making admission the easier option. In other cases, proactive multidisciplinary rapid assessment teams were described as available to avoid admissions. Perceptions of resources available out of hours and the extent of integration between different health services, and between health and social services, also differed by case. CONCLUSIONS: This comparative case study approach identified further factors that may affect avoidable emergency admissions. Initiatives to improve GP out of hours services, make coding more accurately reflect patient experience, increase senior review in emergency departments, offer proactive multidisciplinary admission avoidance teams, improve the availability of out of hours care in the wider emergency and urgent care system, and increase service integration may reduce avoidable admissions. Evaluation of such initiatives would be necessary before wide-scale adoption

Socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and alcohol-related mortality in England and Wales

Background: Many causes of death are directly attributable to the toxic effects of alcohol and deaths from these causes are increasing in the United Kingdom. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in alcohol-related mortality in relation to socioeconomic deprivation, urban-rural location and age within a national context. Methods: An ecological study design was used with data from 8797 standard table wards in England and Wales. The methodology included using the Carstairs Index as a measure of socioeconomic deprivation at the small-area level and the national harmonised classification system for urban and rural areas in England and Wales. Alcohol-related mortality was defined using the National Statistics definition, devised for tracking national trends in alcohol-related deaths. Deaths from liver cirrhosis accounted for 85% of all deaths included in this definition. Deaths from 1999-2003 were examined and 2001 census ward population estimates were used as the denominators. Results: The analysis was based on 28,839 deaths. Alcohol-related mortality rates were higher in men and increased with increasing age, generally reaching peak levels in middle-aged adults. The 45-64 year age group contained a quarter of the total population but accounted for half of all alcohol-related deaths. There was a clear association between alcohol-related mortality and socioeconomic deprivation, with progressively higher rates in more deprived areas. The strength of the association varied with age. Greatest relative inequalities were seen amongst people aged 25-44 years, with relative risks of 4.73 (95% CI 4.00 to 5.59) and 4.24 (95% CI 3.50 to 5.13) for men and women respectively in the most relative to the least deprived quintiles. People living in urban areas experienced higher alcohol-related mortality relative to those living in rural areas, with differences remaining after adjustment for socioeconomic deprivation. Adjusted relative risks for urban relative to rural areas were 1.35 (95% CI 1.20 to 1.52) and 1.13 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.25) for men and women respectively. Conclusions: Large inequalities in alcohol-related mortality exist between sub-groups of the population in England and Wales. These should be considered when designing public health policies to reduce alcohol-related harm

Outcomes of aortic aneurysm surgery in England : a nationwide cohort study using hospital admissions data from 2002 to 2015

Background The United Kingdom aortic aneurysms (AA) services have undergone reconfiguration to improve outcomes. The National Health Service collects data on all hospital admissions in England. The complex administrative datasets generated have the potential to be used to monitor activity and outcomes, however, there are challenges in using these data as they are primarily collected for administrative purposes. The aim of this study was to develop standardised algorithms with the support of a clinical consensus group to identify all AA activity, classify the AA management into clinically meaningful case mix groups and define outcome measures that could be used to compare outcomes among AA service providers. \ud Methods In-patient data about aortic aneurysm (AA) admissions from the 2002/03 to 2014/15 were acquired. A stepwise approach, with input from a clinical consensus group, was used to identify relevant cases. The data is primarily coded into episodes, these were amalgamated to identify admissions; admissions were linked to understand patient pathways and index admissions. Cases were then divided into case-mix groups based upon examination of individually sampled and aggregate data. Consistent measures of outcome were developed, including length of stay, complications within the index admission, post-operative mortality and re-admission. Results Several issues were identified in the dataset including potential conflict in identifying emergency and elective cases and potential confusion if an inappropriate admission definition is used. Ninety six thousand seven hundred thirty-five patients were identified using the algorithms developed in this study to extract AA cases from Hospital episode statistics. From 2002 to 2015, 83,968 patients (87% of all cases identified) underwent repair for AA and 12,767 patients (13% of all cases identified) died in hospital without any AA repair. Six thousand three hundred twenty-nine patients (7.5%) had repair for complex AA and 77,639 (92.5%) had repair for infra-renal AA. Conclusion The proposed methods define homogeneous clinical groups and outcomes by combining administrative codes in the data. These methodologically robust methods can help examine outcomes associated with previous and current service provisions and aid future reconfiguration of aortic aneurysm surgery services